Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 51%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet27. Mai 25, 02:19 UTC1. Jan. 40, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
IF there is a war between China and the United States, will China use ICBMs to deliver non-nuclear strikes to the US?
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KalshiRegeln
Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2040, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, major academic institutions) report a military conflict involving both the United States and China resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.
- Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).
- Covert or proxy conflicts will count ONLY if direct involvement of official U.S. and Chinese military personnel is verifiably documented by credible sources, resulting in at least 1,000 fatalities on each side.
- This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2040.