Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 07:45 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 57.3%
Prognostiker
32
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet21. Okt. 26, 13:54 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a global internet outage affect at least 25% of internet users for 24 consecutive hours before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be massive emigration before 2040 from USA due to the election and governance of a right wing government?
Manifold MarketsAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, 00:00 UTC, a massive global internet disruption occurs meeting at least one of the following verifiable conditions:
- Global Traffic Collapse: Independent internet observatories—such as Cloudflare Radar, IODA, or NetBlocks—record a sustained decline of ≥20% in aggregate global internet traffic lasting continuously for at least 2 consecutive hours.
- Infrastructure Correlated Failure: Simultaneous unplanned downtime lasting at least 2 consecutive hours across three or more major global cloud or edge infrastructure providers (Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Cloudflare or other global providers of similar size), resulting in verified outages across at least 25 of the top 100 most-visited global websites according to Cloudflare Radar or Similarweb.
- Core Protocol/BGP/DNS Root Failure: Either:
- The withdrawal or unreachability of ≥15% of globally active BGP prefixes sustained for at least 2 consecutive hours, as measured by Route Views, RIPE RIS, or Cloudflare Radar; or
