Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
FedAnleihen & StaatsanleihenOne-OffPolitikMakro & WirtschaftUS-Politik4JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:15 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 94.2%
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet11. Mai 26, 14:28 UTC31. Dez. 30, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Are Trump’s Tariffs part of a strategy to restructure the US Debt, Dollar, Trade & Global Financial System? 🇺🇸🏛️🤑
Manifold MarketsTechnical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029
Manifold Markets[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
Manifold MarketsUS announces another yen intervention by which date?
Polymarket30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028
Manifold MarketsJapan 2-year government bond yield at the end of 2026
FutuurRegeln
This market resolves YES if the US federal government has, on or after January 1, 2026 and on or before December 31, 2030, unilaterally restructured previously-issued outstanding marketable US Treasury notes, bonds, or TIPS without bondholder consent.
- YES if any of the following has been announced and taken effect:
- Statutory reduction of stated coupon rate on outstanding Treasury debt
- Compelled extension of stated maturity on outstanding Treasury debt
- Compelled swap of outstanding Treasuries for new instruments with materially altered cash flows (lower coupons, longer maturities, principal haircut), including a "Mar-a-Lago Accord"-style forced swap of foreign holdings
- Statutory cap on Treasury interest payments that materially reduces coupon receipts on outstanding debt
