Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 84%
Prognostiker
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet11. Feb. 25, 12:05 UTC21. Jan. 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%?
Manifold MarketsWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
PolymarketUS Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by which date?
Polymarket30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketRegeln
This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).
- This includes "technical default"; that is, "default" will be construed very broadly: Any failure of more than a day to make any scheduled payment on any debt instrument previously broadly believed to be valid.
- The resolution to this is unlikely to be subtle, but just in case:
- Traditional CDS trigger events like moratorium, repudiation, or acceleration resolve YES.
- Declaring debt previously considered valid (valued near the market rate) to be invalid, or to make foreign-held debt non-redeemable, would resolve YES.
- The 1979 "mini-default" (payments delayed several weeks due to technology issues) would resolve YES.
Offene Märkte
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 34,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2,6 Mio. €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.5%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 543.795,1 €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.9pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.6pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts1%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 7,6 Mio. €
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 84% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029 entschieden?
- Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029 soll am 21. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).