Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 84%
Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet11. Feb. 25, 12:05 UTC21. Jan. 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a technical recession in the US in 2026?
FutuurWill Brightline (Florida) default in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Argentina default before 2027?
Manifold Markets30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
KalshiRegeln
This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).
- This includes "technical default"; that is, "default" will be construed very broadly: Any failure of more than a day to make any scheduled payment on any debt instrument previously broadly believed to be valid.
- The resolution to this is unlikely to be subtle, but just in case:
- Traditional CDS trigger events like moratorium, repudiation, or acceleration resolve YES.
- Declaring debt previously considered valid (valued near the market rate) to be invalid, or to make foreign-held debt non-redeemable, would resolve YES.
- The 1979 "mini-default" (payments delayed several weeks due to technology issues) would resolve YES.
