[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
Wirtschaft & UnternehmenMakro & Wirtschaft1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES. 100%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
34
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet16. Nov. 23, 00:06 UTC18. Sept. 28, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Long shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?
Manifold MarketsManifold Credit Default swaps 2030
Manifold MarketsWill the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
KalshiHousing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
KalshiRegeln
A Credit Default Swap is a financial derivative that allows investors to hedge or speculate on the credit risk of a particular entity.
- Essentially, a CDS is an insurance policy against the default of a borrower.
- In the context of prediction markets like Manifold, we can draw a parallel by considering the likelihood of certain events (or 'defaults') occurring.
- In this case, this market would assess the likelihood of various other markets resolving to a 'Yes' outcome.
- This approach mirrors the CDS concept, as participants are essentially speculating on the 'default' (or outcome) of these other markets.
- Here are the ten open yes/no markets with the most traders.
