Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.2%
Prognostiker
53
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet30. März 25, 18:53 UTC31. März 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
Offene Märkte
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 90,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 358.548,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 35.589,4 €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 554.348,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 33.831,6 €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 314.662,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 10.958,8 €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 17.684,1 €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 75.958,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the US experience a recession during 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 93% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the US experience a recession during 2026? entschieden?
- Will the US experience a recession during 2026? soll am 31. März 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the US experience a recession during 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026.