Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?
Kriminalität & JustizOne-Off4JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 81.8%
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert4. Juli 25, 16:48 UTC31. Dez. 30, 12:57 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to time in prison/jail, house arrest, both, or neither?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
Manifold MarketsWill Robert Lichfield serve time in prison before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow long will Sanae Takaichi be the prime minister of Japan? (She assumed office on October 21st, 2025.)
Manifold MarketsWill José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by which date?
PolymarketJosé Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves to ‘Yes’ if José Sócrates is convicted in connection with the Operação Marquês case and serves any prison time from 2025 onward as part of that conviction.
- Pre-2025 imprisonment does not count, even if credited toward a later sentence.
- If he is sentenced but does not serve any additional time because his pre-2025 preventive detention exceeds or fully covers the sentence, the market resolves to ‘No’.
- Resolves to ‘No’ if he is acquitted or never serves prison time and no further appeals are possible.
- If unresolved, the market remains open until he either serves prison time (‘Yes’) or dies without serving any (‘No’).
