Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffTrade PolicyKI1MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 95.8%
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Veraltet16. Feb. 26, 17:57 UTC31. Okt. 26, 17:57 UTC
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Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026?
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PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.
- This requires both Commerce final affirmative determination AND USITC final affirmative injury determination.
- Timeline & Probabilities:
- 📅 Feb 10, 2026: Prelim AD announced • Russia-wide margin: 132.83%
- 📅 By Mar 1, 2026: Federal Register publication (85% probability) • Legal trigger for statutory deadlines and cash deposits
- 📅 By Jun 30, 2026: Commerce final affirmative AD determination (75%) • Expected ~Apr 28, 2026 unless extended • Final rate uncertain (separate market for rate prediction) • Prelim reference point: 132.83%
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 96% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? entschieden?
- Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? soll am 31. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.