Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?
Russland / UkraineOne-OffHandelspolitikKI5TManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 07:45 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 99%
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Veraltet16. Feb. 26, 17:57 UTC31. Okt. 26, 17:57 UTC
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Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026?
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Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.
- This requires both Commerce final affirmative determination AND USITC final affirmative injury determination.
- Timeline & Probabilities:
- 📅 Feb 10, 2026: Prelim AD announced • Russia-wide margin: 132.83%
- 📅 By Mar 1, 2026: Federal Register publication (85% probability) • Legal trigger for statutory deadlines and cash deposits
- 📅 By Jun 30, 2026: Commerce final affirmative AD determination (75%) • Expected ~Apr 28, 2026 unless extended • Final rate uncertain (separate market for rate prediction) • Prelim reference point: 132.83%
