Will the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?
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16. Feb. 26, 18:33 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Will palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026?
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ForecastExWill an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?
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Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if the U.S. Department of Commerce publishes an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium imports from Russia (HTS 7110.21.0000) in the Federal Register by December 31, 2026.
- Background: On February 10, 2026, Commerce announced a preliminary antidumping determination with a 132.83% margin for the Russia-wide entity.
- For a final duty order to be issued, BOTH of the following must occur:
- Commerce final affirmative determination (expected ~April 28, 2026)
- USITC final affirmative injury determination (expected ~June-September 2026)
- ✅ Feb 10, 2026: Preliminary AD determination (132.83% rate)
