Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 02.11.2026, 02:15 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 89.8%
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142
Fragetyp
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Veraltet24. Mai 23, 01:02 UTC1. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC
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"Strong" means that the evidence is reported as credible by mainstream press and/or is accepted by at least a large minority of relevant scientists (e.g. 1 in 3).
- "Evidence" can be direct (e.g. the physical recovery of alien bacteria from Mars) or indirect (e.g. telescopic observations of technosignatures).
- Evidence can also be of the past existence of aliens, such as fossils.
- "Aliens" are defined liberally.
- This market counts anything that is arguably non-earth-originating life as aliens.
- This includes both intelligent and non-intelligent beings, non-carbon-based biology, and things, such as viruses, for which there is controversy over their status as life.
