Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 85%
Prognostiker
102
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Minuten
1. Jan. 26, 01:35 UTC2. Jan. 27, 02:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if at least one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems is solved in 2026.
- A problem is considered solved if:
- A complete proof is published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal of worldwide repute, OR
- There is consensus among leading experts in the relevant field that the problem has been solved
- The proof must be published in a refereed mathematics publication of worldwide repute and achieve general acceptance in the mathematics community.
Offene Märkte
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 86.744,5 €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+38.1pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 153.913,6 €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+5.0pt75.5%
- 2-0.5pt21.6%
- 32%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5176,7 €
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-3.6pt77%
- No23%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 286.140,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 3457,9 €
- When will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 85% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026? entschieden?
- Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026? soll am 2. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution Criteria