Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 94.2%
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8
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet24. Mai 24, 02:22 UTC1. Juli 28, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038
Manifold MarketsWho Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists?
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PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiRegeln
He must publicly state something like "I am a X" where X is the name of a religious or mystical group.
- It doesn't have to be large but it has to be that kind of group
- I am a Christian
- I am a daoist
- I believe in Mormonism
- I have started a new religious group which I lead, the reincarnationizers
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028 entschieden?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028 soll am 1. Juli 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: He must publicly state something like "I am a X" where X is the name of a religious or mystical group.