Will Republicans have high turnout of voters in 2026 midterms?
InflationOne-OffPolitikUS-PolitikWahlUS-Zwischenwahlen 202615T
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 79.4%
Prognostiker
3
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Minuten
6. Okt. 26, 14:50 UTC4. Nov. 26, 11:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Republicans have low turnout of voters in 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win white voters in the midterms?
PolymarketMidterms: which issue matters most to voters?
KalshiWill the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Louisiana Amendment 9 (income limit for special assessment level) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsGas exceeds $4.50, and democrats control both House and Senate?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the percentage of self-identified Republicans in the national exit polls for the 2026 U.S. House elections is 34.0% or greater.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- Primary Source of Truth: The national exit poll dataset produced by Edison Research for the National Election Pool (NEP), as officially reported on major news outlets such as CNN's Exit Polls.
- Metric: Under the "Party Identification" category, the percentage of surveyed voters who identify as "Republican".
- Alternative Fallback: If Edison Research/NEP exit polls are unavailable or do not publish national party identification data by June 1, 2027, the market will resolve to YES if Republican candidates win at least 50.0% of the total national popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives, as certified and published by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.