Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 94.3%
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet2. Feb. 26, 11:54 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will someone in "dama iipeikou" newly solve Project Euler 696 before the end of this year?
Manifold MarketsHow many problems written by me will be on the 2027 OTIS Mock AIME
Manifold MarketsHow many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRegeln
This market resolves YES as soon as it is widely reported by reputable sources (major tech news outlets, academic institutions, or official FrontierMath/Epoch AI announcements) that Moltbook has first solved at least one previously unsolved open problem on FrontierMath by December 31, 2026 (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems, might change during the year, most up to date list counts).
- YES resolution requires clear documentation that the solution was generated by an AI agent operating on Moltbook and verified as correct by FrontierMath.
- The market resolves NO otherwise in 2027.
- It resolves N/A if FrontierMath ceases to operate.
- I will not bet in this market.
- FrontierMath is a benchmark of hundreds of unpublished and extremely challenging math problems designed to help understand the limits of artificial intelligence.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Moltbook solve any open FrontierMath problems in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Moltbook solve any open FrontierMath problems in 2026? entschieden?
- Will Moltbook solve any open FrontierMath problems in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Moltbook solve any open FrontierMath problems in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves YES as soon as it is widely reported by reputable sources (major tech news outlets, academic institutions, or official FrontierMath/Epoch AI announcements) that Moltbook has first solved at least one previously unsolved open problem on FrontierMath by December 31, 2026 (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems, might change during the year, most up to date list counts).