Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 55.6%
Prognostiker
1
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet18. Juni 26, 15:10 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold Marketswill people still mostly use AI through a textbox on a website/app in August 2027?
Manifold MarketsBy end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
Manifold MarketsWill the US create an antitrust safe harbor for AI safety & security collaboration by 2028?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, as of December 31, 2028, at least half of the top 15 of all evaluated individuals by average Elo rating across the language models tracked on the Center for AI Safety (CAIS) AI Values Dashboard (https://values.safe.ai/) or the best replication of it are pro AI safety.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Current top rated AI safety people include:
- Yoshua Bengio
- Stuart Russell
