Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
Manifold Marketswill people still mostly use AI through a textbox on a website/app in August 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
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As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative learning, not RL is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
