Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 98.2%
Prognostiker
35
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
3. Apr. 24, 17:03 UTC1. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurIran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES for the first test that takes place during the market open and close dates.
- Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will resolve based on a test occurring before the market close date (Jan 1, 2027), not the date mentioned in the title ('before 2026').
- Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to user confusion, the creator has confirmed the market covers the period up to the market close date of Jan 1, 2027.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 98% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026? entschieden?
- Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES for the first test that takes place during the market open and close dates.