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Verzogert18. Feb. 22, 21:12 UTC1. Jan. 00, 05:00 UTC
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Will Robin Hanson win the Nobel Prize for Economics before his death?
Manifold MarketsRobin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?
Manifold MarketsWill Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?
Manifold MarketsIf a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI Labor Shock Crash Markets by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the Citrini scenario happen?
KalshiRegeln
On October 3rd 2021, Robin Hanson tweeted (https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),
- > OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like.
- And we commit our descendants to the bet.
- > I agree to this bet.
- This question resolves to YES if either Robin Hanson concedes the bet to me, or it is clear that I have won, even in the absence of a clear concession by Robin Hanson.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.