Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.9%
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14
Fragetyp
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert21. Apr. 23, 08:00 UTC1. Jan. 00, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2200?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2300?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2400?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.
- To quantify this, National Geographic says:
- "A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known.
- A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known." so I will allow a 50% decrease to resolve this as "yes" and will otherwise resolve this as "no"