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Aktualisiert vor 43 Minuten
21. Apr. 23, 08:00 UTC1. Jan. 00, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2200?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2300?
Manifold MarketsWill marine species threatened of extinction rise to 1700 in 2027's Starfish Barometer?
FutuurWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.
- To quantify this, National Geographic says:
- "A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known.
- A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known." so I will allow a 50% decrease to resolve this as "yes" and will otherwise resolve this as "no"
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 226.325,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.213,7 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 108.303,7 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5183 €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
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- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will humans be an endangered species by 2100??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will humans be an endangered species by 2100? entschieden?
- Will humans be an endangered species by 2100? soll am 1. Januar 2100 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will humans be an endangered species by 2100? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.