Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 05:51 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
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Veraltet10. Okt. 25, 02:58 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "AI be able to do a ✨performance✨ like a really good audiobook narrator." before 2028?
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PolymarketHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Manifold MarketsDaily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users on any platform by end-2026?
Manifold Markets2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Inspired by this:
- [image]https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener#afxuogp7anb
- As per Musk's tweet, "really good" means a substantial increase over merely "watchable," but not to the level of high budget studio blockbuster.
- It must be a full length "movie," not merely a long video (e.g. video essay), or a short cohesive narrative/piece of art along the lines of a student film.
- And it must be made by Grok, although very modest human help is acceptable, so no need for 1-shot from the prompt.
- This is obviously an inherently subjective market, but I will try my best to be fair and impartial.
