Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Down 5% to 14% 30.4%+12.6ptFührend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
20
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+12.6 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet15. Dez. 25, 23:2931. Dez. 26, 23:59
Trends
Regeln
Simple question: what will be the percentage difference between the S&P500 at the opening bell on the first trading day of 2026, compared to the closing bell on the last trading day of 2026.
- AI bubbles correction? interest rate cuts?
- Note these are days and hours in which the U.S. market is open, and not any after hours trading, or trading on international markets in different time
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the percentage change of the S&P 500 between the opening price on the first trading day of 2026 and the closing price on the last trading day of 2026.
- Only regular market hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET) count; after-hours trading is excluded.
Offene Märkte
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change+12.0pt56%
- 25 bps increase-11.0pt43%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 74 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5,2 Mio. €
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Fed maintains rate+10.0pt53.4%
- Hike 25bps-11.0pt42.7%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)-0.3pt88.1%
- 1 (25 bps)+1.0pt8.9%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.4pt3%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change68.3%
- 25 bps increase26%
- 25 bps decrease+0.3pt3.9%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028-3.0pt84%
- Before July 2027-6.0pt77%
- Before 2027-6.0pt69%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4,1 Mio. €
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-1.1pt88%
- Exactly 1 cut+2.1pt10%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.1pt2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decision in September?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in September 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Down 5% to 14% mit 30% (Stand: 4. September 2026).
- Wann wird 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? entschieden?
- 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Simple question: what will be the percentage difference between the S&P500 at the opening bell on the first trading day of 2026, compared to the closing bell on the last trading day of 2026.