Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.7%
Prognostiker
595
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet5. Okt. 22, 13:22 UTC31. Dez. 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
- This question is answered "No" if there is:
- no military conflict between the two parties
- a limited military conflict without triggering a major war
- On the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction.
- Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
Offene Märkte
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- July 18+0.3pt100%
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+20 weitere Ergebnisse
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
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- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Wird China bis Ende 2027 versuchen, Taiwan zu invadieren??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Wird China bis Ende 2027 versuchen, Taiwan zu invadieren? entschieden?
- Wird China bis Ende 2027 versuchen, Taiwan zu invadieren? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Wird China bis Ende 2027 versuchen, Taiwan zu invadieren? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
- Wo wird Wird China bis Ende 2027 versuchen, Taiwan zu invadieren? außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Polymarket gelistet.