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Daten vom 26.10.2026, 07:45 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 91.3%
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598
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binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet5. Okt. 22, 13:22 UTC31. Dez. 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsCondition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
- This question is answered "No" if there is:
- no military conflict between the two parties
- a limited military conflict without triggering a major war
- On the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction.
- Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.