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Veraltet2. Aug. 23, 16:50 UTC2. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNear room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
KalshiWill we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?
Manifold MarketsWill a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Average US Temperature in September 2026 be greater than 67 degrees Fahrenheit?
ForecastExWill the Average US Temperature in September 2026 be greater than 68 degrees Fahrenheit?
ForecastExRegeln
Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of a general artificial intelligence which has a "room temperature" IQ score of 68-77 according to the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale?
- The AI must be a "general intelligence" according to expert consensus.
- It needs to be able to take the test repeatedly and be consistently given a score between 68-77, not higher or lower.
- Resolves YES if these criteria are met by the beginning of 2027, or NO if they are not.
- I will not trade in this market.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 79% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit) entschieden?
- Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit) soll am 2. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of a general artificial intelligence which has a "room temperature" IQ score of 68-77 according to the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale?