Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 24.10.2026, 15:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 57%
Prognostiker
24
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
2. Aug. 23, 16:50 UTC2. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the average US Temperature in 2026 be greater than 55.5 degrees Fahrenheit?
ForecastExWill the average US Temperature in 2026 be greater than 54.1 degrees Fahrenheit?
ForecastExWill the average US Temperature in 2026 be greater than 52.6 degrees Fahrenheit?
ForecastExWill the average US Temperature in 2026 be greater than 56 degrees Fahrenheit?
ForecastExNear room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
KalshiWill we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of a general artificial intelligence which has a "room temperature" IQ score of 68-77 according to the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale?
- The AI must be a "general intelligence" according to expert consensus.
- It needs to be able to take the test repeatedly and be consistently given a score between 68-77, not higher or lower.
- Resolves YES if these criteria are met by the beginning of 2027, or NO if they are not.
- I will not trade in this market.
