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Daten vom 26.10.2026, 07:45 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
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Veraltet24. Jan. 25, 17:46 UTC2. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "AI pause: the case for ASAP" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsConditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
Manifold MarketsAI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Trump publicly call for a global AI slowdown?
KalshiWill Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
For this market, "world leader" is defined as any head of government or head of state of any country which has a population of at least five million people.
- Will any such major world leader call for a global pause on AI development/progress before the end of 2027? The pause would not need to be absolute to qualify, but a pause on certain use cases (eg, weaponry or surveillance) would not suffice.
- I will not bet on this market.