Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 67.7%
Prognostiker
42
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet5. Nov. 23, 02:47 UTC2. Jan. 35, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
Manifold Markets"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsGlobal AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.
- Resolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause
- For the purpose of this question: A global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.
- A pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 68% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted? entschieden?
- Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted? soll am 2. Januar 2035 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.