Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 88.8%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet11. Aug. 25, 10:06 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Germany legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill human-AI marriage be legal in at least one country before 2029?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
For “Yes”, a national law or regulation must come into effect granting legal status equivalent to marriage, civil partnership, or similar to a human–AI couple.
- I will not bet in this market.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba+2.0pt69%
- Moonshot-9.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.3pt6%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 75.086,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 61.476,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.3pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt15.5%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,8 Mio. €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+2.5pt85.4%
- Moonshot-0.3pt9.7%
- Z.ai-3.4pt1.9%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%98%
- Above 2.55%+18.0pt94%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 61.059,8 €
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 89% (Stand: 17. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027? entschieden?
- Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: For “Yes”, a national law or regulation must come into effect granting legal status equivalent to marriage, civil partnership, or similar to a human–AI couple.