Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 71.9%
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet24. Mai 23, 18:03 UTC31. Dez. 33, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Germany legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRegeln
Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria: The market resolves YES if you can change gender on a piece of ID that is allowed to be used as actual identification, without requiring Official Lengthy Approval from a doctor, in the year 2033.
- New Zealand currently has this system (since 2012)
- The market would resolve YES if the law stays the same until 2033
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+3.0pt77%
- New People (NL)-1.9pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.3pt2%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 27,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 922.427,5 €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 191,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 684.259,5 €
KALSHITexas Senate winner?
- James Talarico+4.0pt56.4%
- Ken Paxton-3.0pt43.6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 11,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 625.176,9 €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party88%
- Republican Party-1.0pt12%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 616.267,1 €
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt5%
- September 30,+0.1pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt16%
+48 weitere Ergebnisse
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Florida Governor winner?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 72% (Stand: 17. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? entschieden?
- Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? soll am 31. Dezember 2033 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria: The market resolves YES if you can change gender on a piece of ID that is allowed to be used as actual identification, without requiring Official Lengthy Approval from a doctor, in the year 2033.