Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 20.07.2026, 01:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-2
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseOpenAI 14.7%-2.3%
Prognostiker
71
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Tagen
Veraltet6. Dez. 25, 22:2431. Dez. 26, 23:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
OpenAI15%
Plattformen vergleichen· Anthropic
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste insgesamt80% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Mittel | 89% | — | 180,8 € | 16.799,4 € | vor 14 Minuten | Öffnen → |
 KalshiAktivste80% Übereinstimmung · auto | Mittel | 81% | — | 2529,9 € | 69.903,6 € | vor 14 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| Manifold MarketsDiese Seite | — | 85% | — | — | — | vor 6 Tagen |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
0.5%1J
89%
+0.0%11%
71 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen209.626 €
24h-Volumen180,8 €
POLYMARKETAuch verfügbar auf Kalshi
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
2.0%13J
-4.0%81%
+2.0%18%
64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen279.477,6 €
24h-Volumen2529,9 €
KALSHIRegeln
OpenAI’s financial situation suggests an IPO will be necessary to fund announced spending.
- Anthropic is heading for a much earlier breakeven.
- Both companies are rumoured to be considering an IPO.
- Who will be first? Resolves the day of the first IPO.
- If there is no IPO, it doesn’t resolve.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$20010. Juli10T Daten20. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Anthropic IPO by __?
18.562,5 €December 31,: 72%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
7468,9 €Before Sep 1, 2026: 3%KALSHI
KALSHI
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
4139,2 €SpaceX: 86%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
2785 €↑$1.1T: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
2004 €DeepSeek: 8%KALSHI
KALSHIWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
1145,2 €China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIn diesen Themen aktiv
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OpenAI’s financial situation suggests an IPO will be necessary to fund announced spending.
- Anthropic is heading for a much earlier breakeven.
- Both companies are rumoured to be considering an IPO.
- Who will be first? Resolves the day of the first IPO.
- If there is no IPO, it doesn’t resolve.