Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 90.4%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 21 Minuten
21. Apr. 26, 22:22 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥
Manifold MarketsAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic, OpenAI and DeepMind voluntarily act in accordance with Trump’s executive order 14409 for all of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or OpenAI revenue run rate exceed Tesla, SpaceX, and X combined by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if either Anthropic or OpenAI publicly announces, releases, or makes available for purchase a standardized, consumer-facing subscription plan priced at exactly US$2,000 per month.
- The plan must be available for subscription at this specific price point at any time between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from Anthropic (e.g., official blog, verified social media channels) or OpenAI (e.g., official blog, verified social media channels), or credible reporting from major technology news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, The Verge, TechCrunch) confirming the launch or availability of such a tier.
- Custom-quoted enterprise contracts, usage-based billing, or agreements that do not feature a standardized US$2,000/month subscription tier do not count toward a YES resolution.
- If no such standardized plan is introduced by either company by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO.
