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Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

One-OffKI Technik Wissenschaft3Mon

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

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Ja 94.6%

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18. Jan. 24, 00:11 UTC2. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC

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From the abstract,

We present GPQA, a challenging dataset of 448 multiple-choice questions written by domain experts in biology, physics, and chemistry.
We ensure that the questions are high-quality and extremely difficult: experts who have or are pursuing PhDs in the corresponding domains reach 65% accuracy (74% when discounting clear mistakes the experts identified in retrospect), while highly skilled non-expert validators only reach 34% accuracy, despite spending on average over 30 minutes with unrestricted access to the web (i.e., the questions are "Google-proof").
The questions are also difficult for state-of-the-art AI systems, with our strongest GPT-4 based baseline achieving 39% accuracy.
This question resolves to YES if a credible paper, blog post, or document of any kind indicates that at least some AI obtained a score of greater than 74.0% on the GPQA dataset before January 1st 2027, and NO otherwise.
The result must be credible, and I will exclude results that appear to be the result of cheating: for example, results obtained by training on the test set.

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027??: Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 95% (Stand: 21. September 2026).
Wann wird Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027? entschieden?: Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027? soll am 2. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
Wie wird Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027? abgerechnet?: Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: From the abstract,

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