Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 91.8%
Prognostiker
26
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert8. Juni 25, 09:48 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Manifold MarketsAI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be Time's person of the year in 2025, 2026 or 2027?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketTIME Person of the Year 2026
FutuurRegeln
resolves yes even if AI is done in conjunction with someone (like Sam Altman + AI)
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 92% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026? entschieden?
- Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: resolves yes even if AI is done in conjunction with someone (like Sam Altman + AI)