Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Zohran Mamdani 85%Führend unter 39 Optionen
Prognostiker
61
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet13. März 26, 22:32 UTC1. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Time's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketWill Time's 2026 Person of the Year have one human?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill TIME's 2026 Person of the Year be EXCLUSIVELY one person?
Manifold MarketsTIME Person of the Year 2026
FutuurRegeln
Resolves according to the shortlist released by TIME.
- If no shortlist is released, everything resolves no.
- Must be explicitly named as the headline.
- If ‘The Iranian People’ was on the shortlist, Iranians like the named outcome wouldn’t count.
- Even if they named him in the blurb about Iranian people.
- (Excludes Artemis|| , individual astronauts would resolve yes if Artemis || is named)
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Zohran Mamdani mit 85% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist? entschieden?
- Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist? soll am 1. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves according to the shortlist released by TIME.