Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 81%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet9. Dez. 25, 16:56 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?
Manifold MarketsBest AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves based on the highest value on this graph on January 1, 2027:
- https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
- Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks