Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose32-64 Hours 43.2%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet20. Dez. 25, 13:36 UTC1. Jan. 27, 13:33 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegeln
The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 8 hours.
- If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A. Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the METR time horizon estimate breaks down or is ambiguous/unknown, the market will resolve to the best point estimate even if the confidence interval is wide.
