Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 81.1%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet6. März 26, 01:01 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Grok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenRouter AI token usage in October
KalshiRegeln
Inspiration: https://xcancel.com/ajeya_cotra/status/2029576934523556256#m
- Will a model released this year (2026) be evaluated by METR to have a 50% time horizon of over 100 hours within 6 months of its release?
- Resolves using their most up-to-date methodology at the time (currently the 1.1 time horizon).
- I will tend to try and resolve to the spirit of the question in edge cases, rather than its letter, but I'm happy to take questions and try to provide clarifications in advance.
