Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 09:52 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 81.1%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet6. März 26, 01:01 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Inspiration: https://xcancel.com/ajeya_cotra/status/2029576934523556256#m
- Will a model released this year (2026) be evaluated by METR to have a 50% time horizon of over 100 hours within 6 months of its release?
- Resolves using their most up-to-date methodology at the time (currently the 1.1 time horizon).
- I will tend to try and resolve to the spirit of the question in edge cases, rather than its letter, but I'm happy to take questions and try to provide clarifications in advance.