Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 52.9%
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Aktualisiert vor 22 Stunden
Veraltet4. März 26, 18:50 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be officially recognized as ‘AGI’ (Artificial General Intelligence) before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow long until we see the first report of a true AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
Manifold MarketsWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI achieve AGI?
KalshiRegeln
Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, a single AI system is publicly demonstrated that satisfies ALL of the following conditions:
- Performs at or above human expert level on a broad range of cognitively demanding tasks spanning at least 5 distinct domains (e.g. mathematics, coding, science, writing, reasoning, medicine).
- Can learn and adapt to entirely new tasks with minimal instruction (few-shot or zero-shot), without task-specific retraining.
- Can autonomously plan and execute long-horizon tasks (multi-day, multi-step agentic work) that generate measurable real-world value.
