Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 52.9%
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Veraltet4. März 26, 18:50 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI achieve AGI?
KalshiWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRegeln
Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, a single AI system is publicly demonstrated that satisfies ALL of the following conditions:
- Performs at or above human expert level on a broad range of cognitively demanding tasks spanning at least 5 distinct domains (e.g. mathematics, coding, science, writing, reasoning, medicine).
- Can learn and adapt to entirely new tasks with minimal instruction (few-shot or zero-shot), without task-specific retraining.
- Can autonomously plan and execute long-horizon tasks (multi-day, multi-step agentic work) that generate measurable real-world value.