Dieser Markt wurde entschieden: 2026 (97.6%)
Entschieden: 27.10.2026, 15:06
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CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Gewinnausgang
2026
7 Tage vorher
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24 Stunden vorher
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Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 27.10.2026, 19:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
20250.6%
202697.6%
20270.7%
20280.6%
20290.4%
Gewonnen
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.
- Because GPQA questions are publicly released, leaderboard results come from independent community test harnesses (e.g., Vellum AI, LLM-Stats, xAI livestreams).
- The best-known AI score today (July 2025) is 88.4%
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to the first year in which ALL the following conditions hold:
- Score threshold – A single fully-autonomous system achieves ≥ 95% average accuracy on the standard 448-question GPQA.