Aktuelle Community-Prognose
2026 96.9%Führend unter 5 Optionen
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Quellentyp
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet13. Juli 25, 22:10 UTC1. Jan. 30, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
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PolymarketRegeln
GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.
- Because GPQA questions are publicly released, leaderboard results come from independent community test harnesses (e.g., Vellum AI, LLM-Stats, xAI livestreams).
- The best-known AI score today (July 2025) is 88.4%
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to the first year in which ALL the following conditions hold:
- Score threshold – A single fully-autonomous system achieves ≥ 95% average accuracy on the standard 448-question GPQA.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2026 mit 97% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? entschieden?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.