Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark??

Manifold Markets bewertet 2027 mit 62.3% (Stand: 30. Oktober 2026).

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?

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2027 62.3%

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13. Juli 25, 18:02 UTC1. Jan. 33, 23:59 UTC

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The GSO (Global Software Optimization) benchmark tests whether large-language-model agents can act like real performance engineers.

It extracts 102 optimisation tasks from the commit histories of 10 production code-bases spanning C, C++, Rust, Go, Java, and Python.
For each task the agent receives the full repo, a correctness test-suite, and a runtime profiler, then must submit a single patch that (i) keeps all tests green and (ii) reaches ≥ 95 % of the speed-up achieved by the human expert commit.
The headline metric, Opt @ 1, is simply the fraction of tasks cleared on the very first try; no retries, no cherry-picking.
All patches are rebuilt and timed in a sandbox so scores are reproducible and publicly displayed on the GSO leaderboard.
State of play (July 2025)