Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 88.5%
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Aktualisiert vor 22 Stunden
Veraltet20. Juli 26, 00:43 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Alok Singh, Nate Bottman, Ryan Alweiss, or Elliot Glazer ever win the Alternative Fields Medal?
Manifold MarketsWill Carina Hong win a Fields Medal?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.
- The bet was agreed publicly on X on July 18, 2026.
- See my X post describing the bet.
- This market resolves YES if, after the conclusion of the 2026 Fields Medal cycle and on or before December 31, 2030, the International Mathematical Union officially awards at least one Fields Medal to a human mathematician.
- It resolves NO if no human mathematician is awarded a Fields Medal during that period.
- The 2026 Fields Medals are explicitly excluded.
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 230.755,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 77.061 €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 109.481,6 €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2905,6 €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 89% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? entschieden?
- Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.