Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 90.4%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet18. Juli 26, 05:42 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?
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KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if exactly four humans, and no other parties, are officially awarded the Fields Medal in the calendar year 2030.
- It resolves to NO if this is not the case (in the calendar year 2030) for any reason.
- For example, this market will resolve NO if any AI model is awarded the medal in 2030, or if no medals are awarded in 2030.
- The Fields Medal is awarded every four years by the International Mathematical Union (IMU) during the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM).
- According to the IMU statutes, the selection committee is instructed to choose at least two and no more than four Fields Medalists under the age of 40, with a strong preference for awarding exactly four medals.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 90% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? entschieden?
- Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria