Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 93% (Stand: 8. September 2026).

Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030?

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Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

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Nein 93.1%

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Fragetyp

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Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden

Veraltet

23. Aug. 26, 02:07 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC

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Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, a major pulsar timing array (PTA) collaboration—such as NANOGrav, EPTA, PPTA, InPTA, CPTA, or the overarching International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA)—publishes a peer-reviewed paper or releases an official announcement declaring the confirmed detection of cosmic strings (or cosmic superstrings).
To qualify as a "detection" for a YES resolution:
The publication or announcement must explicitly claim a discovery or detection of cosmic strings, rather than merely stating that they are "not ruled out," "consistent with" the data, or "highly constrained".
The signal must be attributed to cosmic strings—either via a stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB) component definitively associated with cosmic string networks, or through individual gravitational-wave bursts (such as from cosmic string cusps or kinks).
The statistical significance of the detection must meet the scientific collaboration's threshold for a formal claim of detection/discovery (typically a $5\sigma$ significance or a decisive Bayes factor over alternative hypotheses like supermassive black hole binaries) as stated in the official announcement.

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Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030?

One-OffWissenschaft Space4J

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 93.1%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden

Veraltet

23. Aug. 26, 02:07 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Verwandte Märkte

Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Manifold Markets

A Pulsar Timing Detection of a Deviation from Kerr in Sgr A*

Manifold Markets

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

Manifold Markets

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Polymarket

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Kalshi

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Kalshi

Regeln

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, a major pulsar timing array (PTA) collaboration—such as NANOGrav, EPTA, PPTA, InPTA, CPTA, or the overarching International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA)—publishes a peer-reviewed paper or releases an official announcement declaring the confirmed detection of cosmic strings (or cosmic superstrings).
To qualify as a "detection" for a YES resolution:
The publication or announcement must explicitly claim a discovery or detection of cosmic strings, rather than merely stating that they are "not ruled out," "consistent with" the data, or "highly constrained".
The signal must be attributed to cosmic strings—either via a stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB) component definitively associated with cosmic string networks, or through individual gravitational-wave bursts (such as from cosmic string cusps or kinks).
The statistical significance of the detection must meet the scientific collaboration's threshold for a formal claim of detection/discovery (typically a $5\sigma$ significance or a decisive Bayes factor over alternative hypotheses like supermassive black hole binaries) as stated in the official announcement.

Datenproblem bei diesem Markt melden

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030??: Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 93% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
Wann wird Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030? entschieden?: Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
Wie wird Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030? abgerechnet?: Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria

Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030?

Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030?

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