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5. Sept. 26, 04:10 UTC8. Okt. 26, 12:00 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsI am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if the official prize motivation published on NobelPrize.org for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine (announced 5 October), Physics (6 October), or Chemistry (7 October) contains any of these phrases, case-insensitive:
- "artificial intelligence"
- "machine learning"
- "neural network" (or "neural networks")
- "deep learning"
- Otherwise resolves NO.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 76% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks? entschieden?
- Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks? soll am 8. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if the official prize motivation published on NobelPrize.org for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine (announced 5 October), Physics (6 October), or Chemistry (7 October) contains any of these phrases, case-insensitive: