Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 73.3%
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 53 Minuten
Verzogert1. Juni 23, 06:49 UTC1. Jan. 27, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill China obtain an EUV machine?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
As of 2023, China's artificial intelligence (AI) sector has achieved outsized success, with Chinese companies dominating the top five spots in a U.S. government ranking of the most accurate facial recognition technology producers.
- This success is attributed to the alignment of interests between AI technology and autocratic rulers, with AI being a fundamentally predictive technology and autocratic regimes known for collecting vast amounts of data1.
- The growth in FLOPs used for ML training over time has been substantial, with increasing access to cloud computing resources and declining costs contributing to this trend.
- Before January 1, 2027, will any media report a machine learning training run in China exceeding 10^26 FLOP?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2027, there is credible media reporting of a machine learning training run in China that exceeds 10^26 FLOP.