Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 66%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet24. Okt. 23, 14:30 UTC31. Dez. 28, 14:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?
Manifold MarketsWill LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
Manifold MarketsWill Grok 5 beat the best human team at League of Legends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsPublic LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market is focused on more technical definition of LLMs than the market below.
- The engine must use end-to-end neural networks including LLMs.
- Explicit monte-carlo tree search or equivalent methods, which is standard in current chess algorithms, can not be used.
- This market resolves to YES if the NN score above 2,700 in classic elo rating.
- (Same as original market)
- https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-large-language-models-beat-a?r=eWs
Offene Märkte
Sports
POLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs-7.5pt74%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 3.5 total runs-6.5pt65%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 4.5 total runs+0.5pt61%
+26 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 3,9 Mio. €
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R-1.0pt10.6%
- Buffalo-1.0pt10.6%
- San Francisco8%
+29 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 114,8 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Philadelphia
- Philadelphia+27.0pt83.2%
- Milwaukee-26.0pt16.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Tommy Fleetwood+2.5pt8.8%
- Ludvig Åberg-0.4pt7.9%
- Matt Fitzpatrick+0.7pt7%
+97 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHICassone vs Tabur
- Murphy Cassone57.4%
- Clement Tabur42.6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,5 Mio. €
KALSHICleveland vs Boston
- Cleveland+17.0pt62.8%
- Boston-17.0pt37.3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 66% (Stand: 22. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? entschieden?
- Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? soll am 31. Dezember 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market is focused on more technical definition of LLMs than the market below.