Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseOther 47.3%-9.7ptFührend unter 25 Optionen
Prognostiker
116
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+40.7 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Minuten
19. Sept. 26, 23:42 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
0.5%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will Trump name as AI czar?
KalshiTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
LimitlessSOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President by September 30?
PolymarketWill "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
[image]Resolves upon announcement by Trump or his Admin, resolution does not require they actually begin work on the job.
- If Trump announces multiple individuals to co-lead the role, the market will resolve proportionally among those named.
- If no official announcement is made by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
- The primary sources of truth will be official White House statements, the named outcome's verified Truth Social posts, or consensus reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg, The New York Times).
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.416,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 156.321,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 26.110,1 €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Other mit 47% (Stand: 21. September 2026).
- Wann wird Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar? entschieden?
- Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: [image]Resolves upon announcement by Trump or his Admin, resolution does not require they actually begin work on the job.