Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
KIOne-Off1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 06:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 88.8%
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet26. Mai 26, 13:56 UTC1. Feb. 28, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will working for the Federal government be considered an EA cause area by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill research towards time travel be a cause area of Effective Altruism before 2030?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
