Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Samuel Alito 56.1%Führend unter 9 Optionen
Prognostiker
39
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 40 Minuten
9. Juli 24, 16:57 UTC17. Juli 30, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
Manifold MarketsWill a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsWill a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
PolymarketWho will be the next Supreme Court justice?
KalshiNew Supreme Court justice confirmed?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves when any Supreme Court Justice retires or dies while serving.
- Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Any Justice leaving the Court will resolve this as YES.
- Expanding the size of the Court has no impact on a Justice leaving it.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Samuel Alito mit 56% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next? entschieden?
- Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next? soll am 17. Juli 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves when any Supreme Court Justice retires or dies while serving.