If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
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7. Okt. 26, 02:54 UTC3. Jan. 29, 17:00 UTC
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If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
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Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Supreme Court justice?
KalshiNext Justice to leave the US Supreme Court
FutuurRegeln
Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if any justice of the U.S. Supreme Court retires, resigns, dies or otherwise leaves the Court between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive).
- A retirement counts when it takes effect; an announced retirement that has not taken effect by January 3, 2029 does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the Senate.
