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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Space
  3. Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?
Manifold Markets

Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?

CustomSpaceWissenschaftTechnik3J
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Manifold Markets
Nova 15.7%
Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker

5

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 9 Tagen

Veraltet
13. Feb. 26, 8:111. Jan. 30, 8:11

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Nova16%

Regeln

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.

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In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$65,893.78+2.13%SolanaSOL$71.19+3.28%EthereumETH$1,720.05+2.29%DogecoinDOGE$0.0889+1.00%BNBBNB$617.66+1.30%XRPXRP$1.19+2.88%

Verwandte Nachrichten

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Regeln

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.