Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseFalcon Heavy 100%Führend unter 40 Optionen
Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+43.6 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet3. Feb. 26, 15:57 UTC31. Dez. 26, 15:15 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves to all correct answers.
- Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.
- Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2026 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)
- *Starship near-orbits don't count
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+65.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-29.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-6.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 622.727,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 579.450,3 €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+41.0pt99%
- Houston+62.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+4.0pt99%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $74,750 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 411.618 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 411.593 €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt33.3%
- 160-179+5.0pt28.6%
- 200-219-4.0pt15.2%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $73,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
+47 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+25.0pt87.3%
- 65-89-10.0pt12.8%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
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- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Falcon Heavy mit 100% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026? entschieden?
- Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves to all correct answers.